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Table 1 Parameter estimates for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada

From: Quantifying the role of social distancing, personal protection and case detection in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario, Canada

ParameterDefinitionsFeb 26 to Mar 21Feb 26 to Mar 25Feb 26 to Mar 29Feb 26 to Apr 13Source
cContact rate11.790511.55399.1586Estimated
c(t)\(c_{0}\)Constant contact rate before \(T_{s}\)10.0005Estimated
\(r_{1}\)Exponential decreasing rate of contact rate0.0632Estimated
\(c_{b}\)Minimum contact rate after \(T_{s}\)3.4999Estimated
βProbability of transmission per contact0.14500.14500.14520.1438Estimated
qQuarantined rate of exposed individuals0.08100.14790.17540.1003Estimated
σTransition rate of exposed individuals to the infected class1/51/51/51/5[10]
λRate at which the quarantined uninfected contacts were released into the wider community1/141/141/141/14[7]
ρProbability of having symptoms among infected individuals0.60.60.78470.6201Estimated
\(\delta _{I}\)Transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class0.10.10.1Estimated
\(\delta _{I}(t)\)\(\delta _{I0}\)Constant transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class before \(T_{s}\)1/9.2Data
\(r_{2}\)Exponential increasing rate of the detection rate0.7174Estimated
\(\delta _{If}\)Fastest transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class after \(T_{s}\)0.5642Estimated
\(\delta _{q}\)Transition rate of quarantined exposed individuals to the quarantined infected class0.10.10.10.1Estimated
\(\gamma _{I}\)Recovery rate of symptomatic infected individuals0.20.20.19990.1830Estimated
\(\gamma _{A}\)Recovery rate of asymptomatic infected individuals0.1390.1390.1390.139[7]
\(\gamma _{H}\)Recovery rate of quarantined diagnosed individuals0.20.20.20.2[6]
αDisease-induced death rate0.0080.0080.0080.008[6]
θModification factor of asymptomatic infectiousness0.04290.04650.03080.0494Estimated
\(R_{c}\)Control reproduction number3.25462.97202.8464Estimated
Initial valuesDefinitionsFeb 26 to Mar 21Feb 26 to Mar 25Feb 26 to Mar 29Feb 26 to Apr 13Source
S(0)Initial susceptible population1.999 × 1061.999 × 1061.999 × 1061.993 × 106Estimated
E(0)Initial exposed population10121010Estimated
I(0)Initial symptomatic infected population7.678.510Estimated
A(0)Initial asymptomatic infected population15242324Estimated
\(S_{q}(0)\)Initial quarantined susceptible population0000Data
\(E_{q}(0)\)Initial quarantined exposed population0000Data
D(0)Initial quarantined diagnosed population5555Data
R(0)Initial recovered population0000Data
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