Figure 2

(a) Evolution of the epidemic without interventions (\(u=1\)). The number of available ICUs was set to \(C_{0}=30\text{,}000\). The inset shows the overflow in ICU demand, which leads during a period of about 57 days to an increased mortality rate according to Eq. (4a)–(4b). (b) Same as in (a) but on a logarithmic scale. The markers indicate the estimated number of cumulative cases (see Appendix C) and the reported numbers for ICU demand and deaths during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. The first disease-related fatalities were reported on March 9, 2020 (day number 20 in the simulation). Social distancing measures, which came into force nationwide in mid-March [16], have flattened the initial exponential growth