Figure 9

Ratio of the state variables in the initial exponential growth phase and the number of disease related deaths. The numerically exact solution (solid lines) is plotted along with an analytical approximation (solid lines) that holds in the early stage of the epidemic. The corresponding algebraic relations are used to describe ratios between different sub-populations to facilitate the parameter adjustment. Symbols indicate the reported number of disease-related deaths (black), estimated number of cases (grey) and estimated ICU load (purple) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. See the text for details. During mid-March, strict social distancing measures were implemented, that flattened the initial exponential growth