Table 1 List of parameters used in the simulations. See Appendix C for details

\(\mathcal{R}_{0}\)

2.7

basic reproduction number

N(0)

83 × 10⁶

initial population size

\(\gamma _{l}^{-1}\)

2.6d

average latency time between exposure and infectious period

\(\gamma _{i}^{-1}\)

2.35d

average infectious period before recovery or hospitalization

\(\gamma _{h}^{-1}\)

4.0d

average period before severely ill patients turn critical or recover

\(\gamma _{c}^{-1}\)

7.5d

average period before critical patients recover or die

β

\((1.15 \text{d} )^{-1}\)

transmission rate

m

0.92

fraction of infected with at most mild symptoms

c

0.27

fraction of hospitalized patients that turn critical

f

see Eq. (4a)–(4b)

fraction of critical patients that turn fatal

\(f_{0}\)

0.31

mortality of a critical patient with ICU

\(f_{1}\)

2 \(f_{0}=0.62\)

mortality of a critical patient without ICU

\(C_{0}\)

variable

number of ICUs/ max. number of simultaneously critical cases

T

\(10\times T_{\text{crit}}\)

final time of the simulation, for \(T_{\text{crit}}\) see Eq. (17)