Table 2 List of parameters used in the transmission model for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada

Parameter

\(p_{1}^{H}\)

Relative increase of the weight of the contact matrix for household settings from phase 0 to phase 1

0.1320 (0.0866)

Estimated

\(p_{1}^{C}\)

Relative increase of the weight of the contact matrix for community settings from phase 0 to phase 1

0.0685 (0.0642)

Estimated

\(p_{2}^{H}\)

Relative increase of the weight of the contact matrix for households from phase 1 to phase 2

0.2832 (0.1807)

Estimated

\(p_{2}^{C}\)

Relative decrease of the weight of the contact matrix for community settings from phase 1 to phase 2

0.3283 (0.1575)

Estimated

\(p_{3}^{H}\)

Final relative increase of the weight of the contact matrix for household settings in phase 3

0.0436 (0.0593)

Estimated

\(p_{3}^{W}\)

Final relative decrease of the weight of the contact matrix for workplace settings in phase 3

0.5921 (0.0820)

Estimated

\(p_{3}^{C}\)

Final relative decrease of the weight of the contact matrix for community settings in phase 3

0.7888 (0.1697)

Estimated

\(r_{H}\)

Exponential increase in household contact rate

0.0379 (0.0532)

Estimated

\(r_{W}\)

Exponential decrease in workplace contact rate

0.4711 (0.0853)

Estimated

\(r_{C}\)

Exponential decrease in community contact rate

0.1019 (0.0461)

Estimated

\(\beta_{i}\)

Probability of transmission per contact, age-dependent

Table 4

Estimated

\(q_{0}\)

Fraction of quarantined exposed individuals phase 0–2

0.1187 (0.0645)

Estimated

\(q_{b}\)

Maximum fraction of quarantined individuals exposed

0.7272 (0.0583)

Estimated

\(r_{q}\)

Exponential increase in quarantine fraction

0.0282 (0.0022)

Estimated

σ

Transition rate of exposed individuals to the infected class

1/5

[18]

λ

Rate at which the quarantined uninfected contacts were released into the wider community

1/14

[5]

ϱ

Probability of having symptoms among infected individuals

0.7036

[2]

\(\delta _{Ii}\)

Transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class

Table 4

Estimated

\(\delta _{q}\)

Transition rate of quarantined exposed individuals to the quarantined infected class

0.3409 (0.1137)

Estimated

\(\gamma _{I}\)

Removal rate of symptomatic infected individuals

0.1957

[2]

\(\gamma _{A}\)

Removal rate of asymptomatic infected individuals

0.139

[5]

\(\gamma _{D}\)

Removal rate of quarantined diagnosed individuals

0.2

[19]

α

Disease-induced death rate

0.008

[19]

θ

Modification factor of asymptomatic infectiousness

0.0275

[2]

Initial values

\(S_{i} (0)\)

Initial susceptible population

Table 4

Data [20]

\(E_{i} (0)\)

Initial exposed population

Table 4

Estimated

\(I_{i} (0)\)

Initial symptomatic infected population

Table 4

Estimated

\(A_{i} (0)\)

Initial asymptomatic infected population

Table 4

Estimated

\(S_{q_{i}}(0)\)

Initial quarantined susceptible population

0

Assumed

\(E_{q_{i}}(0)\)

Initial quarantined exposed population

0

Assumed

\(D_{i} (0)\)

Initial diagnosed population

Table 4

Incidence data

\(R_{i} (0)\)

Initial recovered population

0

Assumed