Table 1 Baseline parameters used in the model (based on [49])

β

baseline transmission rate

0.0640

\(\gamma ^{A}\)

recovery rate on asymptomatic compartment

Equal to \(\gamma ^{Y}\)

\(\gamma ^{Y}\)

recovery rate on symptomatic non-treated compartment

\(\frac{1}{\gamma ^{Y}}= 4.0\)

τ

symptomatic proportion

0.55

σ

exposed compartment exit rate

\(\frac{1}{\sigma }\sim 2.9\)

\(\rho ^{A}\)

pre-asymptomatic compartment exit rate

Equal to \(\rho ^{Y}\)

\(\rho ^{Y}\)

pre-symptomatic compartment exit rate

\(\frac{1}{\rho ^{Y}}=2.3\)

P

proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission

0.44

\(\omega ^{Y}\)

relative infectiousness of symptomatic individuals

1.0

\(\omega ^{A}\)

relative infectiousness of infectious individuals in compartment \(I^{A}\)

0.66

\(\omega ^{P}\)

relative infectiousness of pre-symptomatic individuals

\(\omega ^{P}=\frac{P}{1-P}\frac{\tau \omega ^{Y}[YHR/\eta +(1-YHR)/\gamma ^{Y}]+(1-\tau )w^{A}/\gamma ^{A}}{\tau \omega ^{Y}/\rho ^{Y}+(1-\tau )\omega ^{A}/\rho ^{A}}\)

IFR

infected fatality ratio, age specific (%)

[0.6440,6.440]

YFR

symptomatic fatality ratio, age specific (%)

[1.130,11.30]

\(\gamma ^{H}\)

recovery rate in hospitalized compartment

\(\frac{1}{\gamma ^{H}}\sim 10.7\)

YHR

Symptomatic case hospitalization rate %

[4.879,48.79]

Π

rate of symptomatic individuals go to hospital, age-specific

\(\Pi =\frac{\gamma ^{Y}*YHR}{\eta +(\gamma ^{Y}-\eta )YHR} \)

η

rate from symptom onset to hospitalized

0.1695

μ

rate at which terminal patients die

\(\frac{1}{\mu }= 8.1\)

HFR

hospitalized fatality ratio, age specific (%)

[4,23.158]

ν

death rate on hospitalized individuals, age specific

\(\nu =\frac{\gamma ^{H} HFR}{\mu +(\gamma ^{H}-\mu )HFR}\)

θ

total ventilator capacity in all hospitals

3000 [50]

1/r

number of deaths from people who are put on respirators

1/3